Climate Change: Will We Make It?

Climate change is a very pressing issue affecting all of the planet's inhabitants. The Earth’s climate has been fluctuating since the beginning, however, these changes occurred due to natural causes, unlike the human activities that are producing modern global warming. The exponential increase of these activities began in the West due to Industrial Revolution, thus, it clearly was a defining moment in human’s intervention of the Earth’s delicate balance; putting the planet on a track to demise. The question now is whether the path can be changed.

"Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate." United States 

     Environmental Protection Agency. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Jan. 2016

Many argue that human activity is not the cause of modern climate change, but just another one of the Earth's cycles. That is true, there are many ways that climate change can occur naturally, for example, variations in the sun’s energy output, minute changes in the Earth’s orbit, the movement of tectonic plates, volcanic mega-eruptions, and even meteorite impacts. What most of these phenomena have in common is that they cause a disruption of the atmospheric gases, which are directly linked to the Earth’s temperature. These reasons can all explain climate change prior to the Industrial Revolution, but fail to do so with modern warming. As the graph above portrays, current natural factors alone are not capable of causing such dramatic increases.

The Industrial Revolution began in Britain in the 1700s and spread to the rest of the world. The usage of machines and factories led to mass production, which led to the development of numerous environmental hazards with effects that would only be seen clearly in the years to come. An increase in population also occurred, although not immediately, resulting in more activities that were depleting certain natural resources (e.g. deforestation). The reduction of trees amplified the problem of carbon emissions because trees act as carbon sinks (absorb carbon), as well, these factories also emitted land and water pollution which further harmed the already suffering environment. 

"Carbon Concentrations." Chart.Planet Save. N.p., Web. 21 Jan. 2016. 

The population’s quest for and use of energy has given people the ability to shift the climate by altering the delicate balance of gases. For example, carbon dioxide, as seen the in the graph to the left, has reached unmatched levels since the Industrial Revolution, or CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons) which play a major role in the destruction of the ozone, and are entirely of industrial origin. The “hockey stick” plot below is also incredibly fascinating for when zooming in on the graph above, a continuous downward trend towards another ice age is seen, but instead of continuing, a rapid increase in temperatures occurs.

"Variations of Earth's Surface Temperature." Chart. IPCC. N.p., 2001. Web. 21 Jan. 2016. 

Before the activism, there were scientists discovering evidence. In 1824, Joseph Fourier first described the “greenhouse effect” stating that gases in the atmosphere trap some of the sun’s energy. Then in 1861, an Irish physicist, John Tyndall, presented the idea that water vapour and other certain gases create this greenhouse effect, stating that “This aqueous vapour is a blanket more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man.” (BBC). However, neither of these men suggested that humans were doing anything to alter the chemistry of the atmosphere. The first to propose the theory that industrial-age coal burning will enhance the greenhouse effect was the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius (seen below) in 1896. 

 Arrhenius in his laboratory, 1909.
Arrhenius, Svante. SAAW International. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan. 2016. 

He also proposed a relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature, suggesting that a doubling of the CO2 concentration would lead to a 5°C increase.  However, after these discoveries, the topic fled into the background. At the time, human influences were seen as insignificant compared to natural forces such as solar activity and ocean circulation; the oceans were considered such great carbon sinks that they would automatically cancel out the pollution. Even though more evidence came to light in the 1940s and 50s, the ocean absorbing theory still stayed strong, until 1957. Roger Revelle discovered the chemical pathways of ocean CO2 uptake, which showed that oceans are limited in their ability to absorb the quantity of gases released by the burning of fossil fuels, writing "Human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment..." (BBC). Though, it wasn’t until the late 1980s (with data showing steep increases in temperature) that the theory of global warming began to grab public attention.  Environmental non-governmental organizations started to advocate, with the press gaining interest as well. Pictures of smoke stacks were put up next to pictures of melting ice caps and flood events; it was an absolute media circus that convinced many that they were on the edge of a momentous change. It was finally recognized, in 1988, "that the climate was warmer than any period since 1880[, and thus] the greenhouse effect theory was named and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded by the United Nations Environmental Programme and the World Meteorological Organization" (Enzler MSc). The Panel is composed of approximately 2500 scientific and technical experts from more than 60 countries, encompassing a wide range of fields including ecology, economics, and medicine. It is "referred to as the largest peer-reviewed scientific cooperation project in history" (Enzler MSc). However, even with such evidence, the discussion continued and still continues. 

Due to such uncertainties, responding to the issue becomes difficult. It is a global problem, one that cannot be solved by a single country alone, but it does require the full attention of some of the major polluters like China and the United States (produce 45% of the total emissions). Therefore in 1998, the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in Japan and was eventually signed in Bonn in 2001. It required the participating countries to "reduce their emissions by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitments period of 2008-2012" (Enzler MSc). Unfortunately, its failure (seen in the video to the left) was quite large; problems between the developed West and East countries made it difficult for any progress to be made. Nonetheless, a historic agreement, sometimes dubbed as the “world's greatest diplomatic success”, was signed in December of 2015 in Paris (Harvey). This agreement was the world’s first comprehensive agreement, which unlike the Kyoto Protocol is legally binding. This video illustrates some of the key points. As well, the agreement calls that developed nations give $100 billion annually to developing countries by 2020 to aid in combating climate change and foster greener economies, which will help reach the goal of a carbon-neutral world between 2050 and 2100.

A demonstration by the Arc de Triomphe on December 12, 2015.
Sobeki, Nichole. Paris Protest. The Ground Truth Project. N.p., 2015. Web. 22.Jan. 2016. 
    

Before the Paris agreement, it felt as though there was no hope in fixing humanities mistakes, however, there might just be a chance. History has shown that when people are informed and have a goal in mind, they are able to create and enforce change, as proved by this study from Harvard in 2013. The recent climate marches have proven that this major issue is being recognized and that people are truly committed to producing change. Though this is clearly not the end, many are not convinced that this agreement will be enough, and it is possible that they are correct for there is still a chance of an outcome similar to the Kyoto Protocol. What it comes down to is the people, they have to stay committed and on the offensive, pushing their governments. It is easy for these figures to shake hands and agree, which is an immense first step and should not be understated, but without the action to follow it will just flee into history as another failed attempt. So, as long as this is not seen as the end of the journey, there might just be a chance to lead us off the track of demise.

In conclusion, the Industrial Revolution had brought upon a remodeling of society and the world. Coal burning began to increase at an unstoppable rate, bringing rise to other energy sources such as oil (as seen in the chart to the left) which grew rapidly and even more quickly embedded themselves into our everyday lives. These changes may have brought prosperity to the people, but crippled the environment; causing climate change which has resulted in the extinction of species, the rising of sea levels, and a greater frequency of extreme weather. The planet is at a cross-road. No one can tell whether the years to come will bring the change needed or an acceleration to extinction, it all comes down to the decisions and the actions of today. 


Works Cited